July 15 F&O Outlook: Nifty range-bound, must exceed 15,900 for a new rally; Bank Nifty looks up to 36,000
The Nifty 50 Index is expected to trade in the 15,500-15,800 range during the current week until the July 15th expiration. Analysts see a positive bias in the index even without clear direction from the direction. On the other hand, 34,700 remains an important level to watch for Bank Nifty; and it can bounce back from 35,000. Over the past month, Nifty 50 has continued to hover in the 15,450-15,900 area and currently reigns in the middle of that range. So far this week, Nifty has fallen more than 1% to today’s low of 15,632.75. It has lost almost 2% from the highest levels of all time. Bank Nifty has continued to underperform the broader Nifty 50 Index since February of this year. “We expect Bank Nifty to rebound from the current level around 35,000 and move towards 35,800-36,000,” Ashis Biswas, head of technical research, CapitalVia Global Research, told Financial Express Online.
Ajit Mishra, Vice President – Research, Religare Broking
Nifty has been hovering in the 15450-15900 area since June and is currently trading in the middle of the band. With the start of the earnings season, the possibility of a decisive breakout seems high. While there is no clear indication of the direction yet, the bias is still on the positive side. We suggest participants continue with ‘buy troughs’ until Nifty holds above the 15,450 area. A decisive breakout above 15,900 would pave the way for over 16,300 levels. .
Bank Nifty has underperformed the Nifty Index since February and there is no sign of a trend change yet. He tried to get past the major obstacle 36,000 behind, but to no avail. However, the decline also appears to be capped with several supports at the 34,300-34,500 area and major at 33,900 levels. We believe traders should prefer option spreads around the support area for long positions rather than bare longs in futures, citing the dominant underperformance.
Rahul Sharma, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research, JM Financial Services
Concerns about the US economic recovery and Chinese inflation data are pushing global markets down. US markets were down around 1% while Europe was down around 2% on Thursday. Nifty Futures and Bank Nifty Futures saw the addition of new shorts (OI + 5.8% and 5%, respectively) as volumes were above average at 15-day highs. Options data suggests a range of 15,500-15,800. India VIX spiked 11% as well as a one-sided decline on expiration day. FIIs added short positions in the index while closing their long positions in equity futures. The bias remains bearish below 15,800 with bearish supports at 15,635 and 15,600. Bank Nifty’s breakdown point is at 34,900. The follow-up sell is essential to confirm the split of the two indices.
Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA, Consulting Technical Analyst and Founder, Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services
Trade started on Friday with options data giving weak clues. The initial session saw a large addition of 15,700-level OI (Call Write) calls to Nifty with an addition of 1.7 million shares. With calls writing at 15700, that level, followed by 15800, has now become stiff resistance as 15800 continues to hold the highest accumulation of OI calls. On the lower side, the 15600 levels hold a maximum OI PUT of 2.5 million shares followed by 2.4 million shares at 15500. So from current data the trading range is defined as 15500- 15800 on Nifty for the next week. On the Bank Nifty front, 35,000 strikes saw the writing of calls for more than 1.2 million shares. Strikes 35000 and 35500 both hold a similar Call OI of 1.2 million shares. On the lower side, the 35000 also holds the maximum PUT OI at 1.3 million. In the case of Bank Nifty, the 35000 level is likely to act as an inflection point for the index.
Ashis Biswas, Head of Technical Research, CapitalVia Global Research
We observed that open interest increased the most for 15800CE and 16000CE, this implies that options sellers see the 15800 and 16000 levels as strong resistance. We observed that the maximum call write occurs during exercise 15800 with OI 4897125 indicating strong upside resistance for Nifty 50 at 15800. Options Max Pain is currently at 15750. For now, it The market is expected to expire around the 15700-15800 level. . The critical level for Bank Nifty is 34700 which should provide solid support. We expect Bank Nifty to rebound from the current level around 35000 and move towards 35800-36000.
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