Bitcoin (BTC) could sidetrack for another two years before resuming its bull run, according to new data.

In a Tweeter on April 6, veteran trader Peter Brandt highlighted historical patterns suggesting the hodlers will have to wait until 2024 for their next moonshot.

8 months off, 25 to go?

Bitcoin surprised analysts with its performance over the past year, as the much-anticipated “thunderbolt” peak in Q4 2021 was well below expectations.

After BTC/USD lost more than 50% of these modest new all-time highs, the debate around the relationship between price and Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycles has shifted.

The market, as Cointelegraph reported, was accustomed to a macro price top coming once every four-year cycle, particularly the year following each of Bitcoin’s block subsidy halving events.

Today, however, price action is less predictable, and while the factors controlling it are many and varied, this does not necessarily mean that the bulls will get their break at a different time in the current cycle.

Brandt’s data shows that the next wave of momentum for Bitcoin may not occur until May 2024 – which almost exactly matches the next block subsidy halving.

Historically, that would be a year too early for a blown top, but it could still result in a 10X price increase based on historical patterns that go past halving cycles.

“The last two times BTC advanced 10X or more, it took an average of 33 months for the next stage of the rocket to kick off,” Brandt explained.

“If history repeats itself (which I don’t believe), the next stage of the rocket will be ignited in May 2024.”

One step after another

As for what could keep Bitcoin suppressed until then, analysts have overwhelmingly pointed to macro triggers.

Related: Bitcoin Slips Below $44,000 in April for the First Time as Trader Warns ‘Something’s Wrong’ With BTC

Central bank tightening, if successful, should logically put pressure on risky assets, while a prolonged period of high inflation and low interest rates also paints a gloomy picture for Bitcoin – at least. short term.

Further, the status quo could change once the initial shock of these events passes. Arthur Hayes, former CEO of exchange BitMEX, and Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone are visibly more confident about Bitcoin over longer time frames than in the months ahead.

“BTC is a risky safe haven. Gold is a risky safe haven. Bitcoin as an untested theoretical safe haven, this year will be the first real market test,” said statistician Willy Woo. forecast in February on the outlook for 2022.

“In a wartime scenario, risk aversion is the first market response, the second market response is towards safe havens.”

The views and opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.